Soft January days

At the moment, with a third of the month gone, this January is the mildest since before 1900. It hasn't been wall to wall sunshine, but the soft grey clouds with chinks of blue showing through are nevertheless uplifting when accompanied by a temperature that frequently tops 10 Celsius. Since 1900, a total of 4 out of the top 10 mildest Januaries have occurred during the last 10 years and only 2 of the mildest Januaries occurred before 1974. The mildest January, 2007, had maxima above 10 Celsius continuously from the 3rd to the 20th, and on 6 days the high topped 13 Celsius, a figure we haven't reached this January. The highest value was 14.2 Celsius on the 18th, a day of destructive winds when a gust of 58 knots (64 mph) was recorded here. Although the month was record-breakingly mild, it was not without its wintery moments. Sleet or snow fell on 5 days towards the end of the month and on the 24th there were 3 centimetres of snow carpeting the garden for most of the morning.

Second Best

The frost has left the banana looking sad but all the talk is about the warmth of November, the autumn and the year. In this area, November 2011 was the 2nd mildest since before 1900, the autumn (September, October and November) was also the second warmest since 1900. Currently the year 2011 is also the 2nd warmest since 1900! So, what does December need to make it number one. The year to beat is 2006. January and February were actually milder this year than in 2006 by about 1.5 degrees. The spring was much warmer this year by about 3 degrees. However, the summer was much cooler by almost 4 degrees. This autumn was less than a degree cooler than the autumn of 2006; so where does that leave the last month of the year. December 2006 was mild with a mean temperature of 7.7 Celsius. In fact, that made it the 5th mildest December since 1900. For 2011 to be the warmest year since 1900 this month needs to have a mean temperature of 8.6 Celsius. In December 1974 the mean temperature was 8.7 Celsius so the figure is achievable, but this year? No, pretty unlikely, second best again!

Another mild and sunny day

November 2010 was a fairly dry month, but that is the only weather feature it shared with this November. So far this month there have been no air frosts, although tonight could change that statistic. There have been several mild and sunny days, a continuing characteristic of this autumn, and although the leaves have fallen off most of the trees, the run up to winter is very different from last year. On this day in 2010, it was cloudy, not unusual of course, but the maximum temperature was only 1.4 Celsius. That is 12.7 Celsius lower than the highest temperature recorded today. Although a frost is a possibility for tonight, the minimum will undoubtedly be several degrees higher than on the corresponding night last year. On that night the temperature fell to minus 5.9 Celsius, the lowest November reading for 21 years. On the last day of the month there was heavy snow, and the good folk of this area awoke on the 1st of December to an 8 centimetre covering of snow! Not so this year, presumably.

What about the frost?

This autumn, so far, has seen a couple of white grass frosts (in October) but no air frosts have occurred. How unusual is that? At this site records began in 1988 and since then there have only been 2 instances where the autumn months, September, October and November, have been completely free of air frosts. The years in question were 1994 and 1999. In 1994, November was exceptionally mild and currently stands as the mildest November in this area since before 1900. Also the temperature difference to the next mildest (1938) is, in statistical terms, quite substantial. However, at the moment, this November is milder than that of 1994, also by quite a significant margin. Today may help to change that, though, with the maximum temperature struggling to achieve double figures. In both 1994 and 1999 the frost-free period did not extend through the remainder of the year. In 1994 the first frost of the 'winter' occurred on December 15th with the 14th seeing the first frost in 1999.

The splendid weather has to end

Although no records have been broken, this month will be remembered for many dry, sunny and pleasantly warm days, and of course the exceptional heat at the beginning of October. At the moment it is the driest October since 1978, although rain tonight looks like changing that. October 1978, despite being a dry month, was not particularly sunny, and although days were often warm, nights were sometimes quite chilly. The cool nights have been a feature of recent temperature statistics this October, and that has dragged down the temperature averages. Therefore, it seems unlikely that this month will hold on to it's 5th warmest ranking (since 1900) . However, the 4 mildest Octobers have all occurred during the last 16 years and Edwardian or Georgian London would have been very pleased with this mild, bright and smog-free month!

Receding blue skies

After the amazingly blue skies of yesterday, the clouds have returned. Mustn't grumble, though. This October continues to be the warmest for at least a 100 years but will it last? Well, maybe! Although there have been some fairly warm days, the nights have been chilly under the starry skies. The first real ground frost of the autumn occurred last night, but although there may be some more chilly nights to come, the forecast charts suggest a much more unsettled and windy second half to the month. It should mean maximum temperatures near, or slightly above average, but with nights generally much milder than average under the cloudy skies. So, probably a top 10 spot as a mild October, but number 1 will be more difficult. The mildest October, 2001, only had a monthly minimum temperature of 4.9 (0.7 so far this month!), and there were just 9 days with minimum temperatures below 10 Celsius!