So, how bad is this summer?

The summer is about two thirds over and there are two schools of thought as to how it is progressing. Some think it is very pleasant with good growing weather. Others think it is cool and wet. Statistics point towards the latter claim....but with reservations! It has been said many times that the manipulation of numbers can often produce the results you want to see and the following figures come with the same caveat. By using a ranking system from 1 to 112, with 1 being the warmest or driest since 1900 and 112 being the coolest or wettest since 1900, comparisons can be made. For example, June and July 1976 were both warm and dry. Using equal weighting, June 1976 produce 1+6=7 and July gave 8+16=24. The total therefore was 31. By way of contrast, the June and July of 1987 were both very poor and produced 86+86=172 for June and 56+92=148 for July, a 2-month total of 320. So far, the numbers for June are 67+94=161 and for July 90+59=149, a total of 310. It can be seen that using basic comparisons of temperature and rainfall, the first 2 months of this summer are up there with the worst of them! Let's hope that August 2011 is less forgettable than the early months of summer.

Wet, but could be wetter!

As the rain hammers down again, it looks as if the monthly average for July could be exceeded by the end of today. In recent years there have been several quite wet Julys. In 2009 measurable rain fell on 22 days, and in 2007 over 124 mm of rain fell, including the 41mm that was recorded on the 20th. Some of the most intense rainfall of the year can fall in July, and large totals over a very short time period are not that unusual. Kensington had 25 mm of rain in 12 minutes on the 11th July 1927, and on the same day 37 mm fell in 18 minutes at Balham. On the 26th July 1946 there was a fall of 50 mm in 35 minutes at Kew. Some parts of Greater London have had over 100 mm in 24 hours and southeast London appears to be particularly vulnerable to these heavier falls. Over most of London it looks as if 1918 had the wettest July with parts of southeast and east London recording over 200 mm of rain. West London fared better with only 121 mm of rain at Kew, a figure this month is moving towards; but will it reach it?

A touch of optimism for July, maybe!

The general consensus is that this July has been poor so far. Statistics bear this out, with rainfall (up to the 10th) already 50% of the monthly average and temperatures the lowest for 23 years. The month has a long way to go and changes may occur. In some years they are marked. For example, in 1980, after a cool and wet June, holiday-makers were hoping for a better July. Alas, the first day of the month brought strong northerly winds, persistent rain and drizzle and a high of only 15. At midday in central London the temperature was only 12! A couple of dry and warmer days were then followed by more rain, and on the 8th another very cool, windy and wet day occurred with the 9th little better. No let up in the unsettled weather occurred until after mid month with infrequent sunshine and afternoon temperatures typically between 14 and 17. Finally, a sunny day occurred on the 21st, and although the maximum was only 19, it was the beginning of a spell of summery weather that lasted until the last couple of days of the month. On the 25th the temperature reached 28. Despite the warm end to the month, July 1980 was the coldest since 1922, and in recent years, although poor Julys have occurred, none of them have approached the dire weather experienced during the first 3 weeks of that very forgettable month.

Good for the garden...in moderation!

Rain is almost a daily occurrence this month, and although it has done wonders for the garden, it is now becoming somewhat excessive. So far, this June has had nearly 66mm of rain making it the wettest this century. It has a long way to go before beating the 137mm that fell in June 1997. Nevertheless, there has almost been twice as much rain as we had in the whole of the Spring (March, April and May). Whilst the fruits are filling out quite nicely, the temperature is on the low side for some crops, especially tomatoes. At the moment it is the coolest June for 20 years, although there is a hint of somewhat warmer weather later in the month. The highest daily average temperature occurred in April with 19.3C. May had 18.6C, and so far this month the average is 19.1C. It would be extremely unusual if this situation was unchanged at the end of the month, and it would be even more unusual, perhaps unique, if the highest temperature (27.2C on the 23rd April) turned out to be the warmest day of the year!

Rain, and more rain

With the drought stories fading from the news as quickly as they appeared, rain drops continue to fall. Of course, some parts of the country are still in dire need of sustained rainfall, but for this area of south London the drought is well and truly broken. So far this month we have had over 45mm of rain. Already it is the wettest June for 4 years, and the wettest start to June since 2002. In that year 42mm fell in just 1 day (the 5th), and back in June 1973 nearly 45mm fell in Morden in 1 day. Recently, Junes have tended to be dry and there have only been 2 wetter than average June since 2000, Prior to that, there were a couple of exceptionally wet Junes. In 1998 nearly 125mm of rain was recorded, and in the previous June (1997) over 137mmwas measured. Although 1997 possessed the wettest June in living memory, in 1903 over 180mm of rainfall was measured at Kew, all of it falling between the 9th and 20th. At Carshalton over 80mm of rain fell on 10th June 1903. By the way, most of the rest of that Summer, and much of the Autumn, remained cool and wet!