There is still time!

The crab apples are beginning to rot on the trees and so far there has been no sign of the Redwings or Fieldfares that descend on the tree when there is 'real' winter weather. There still hasn't been any 'proper' snow and the days are steadily lengthening. The forecast charts occasionally hint at a blast from the east but without much conviction, although there is still hope. Some of the coldest Februaries have been proceeded by average, or even mild, Januaries. In 1947, the coldest February since 1900, was preceded by fairly mild weather up until mid January. In 1986, the second coldest February since 1900, the preceding December was less snowy than December 2011! There were just 2 days with a few blobs of sleet. January 1986 was a wet month with temperatures close to average. Sleet or snow fell on 8 days but it didn't settle. The last week of January became rather cold and winds swung to the northeast and then February! The first few days of the month were dull and drizzly although a little snow settled on the evening of the 2nd. Real winter began on the evening of the 5th. Snow fell followed by a frost, and snow then remained on the ground until the 5th March with every night during that period having a frost. Time will tell!

A very mild Christmas

At this time last year we were just emerging from our biggest December freeze for 120 years. Snow lay on the ground. albeit in the form of large icy patches, and after a maximum temperature of just minus 0.9 Celsius on Christmas Day, Boxing Day dawned with a low of minus 6.8 Celsius. This December, mild, but unremarkably so, has not seen temperatures anywhere the values recorded last year. Yesterday (Christmas Day) was the mildest in this area for 13 years, and today, with the temperature nudging 13 Celsius, is also the mildest Boxing Day since 1998. Last year, the temperature failed to rise above 10 Celsius during the whole of December, but for snow lovers the rest of the winter was a dismall failure. A few flakes of snow were observed in the rain on 3 days during January and no snow fell in February. So what of the rest of the winter of 1998/1999? Apart from a brief snowy spell at the beginning of the second week of February, southwesterly winds prevailed bringing plenty of mild changeable weather; and this winter?........

Another mild and sunny day

November 2010 was a fairly dry month, but that is the only weather feature it shared with this November. So far this month there have been no air frosts, although tonight could change that statistic. There have been several mild and sunny days, a continuing characteristic of this autumn, and although the leaves have fallen off most of the trees, the run up to winter is very different from last year. On this day in 2010, it was cloudy, not unusual of course, but the maximum temperature was only 1.4 Celsius. That is 12.7 Celsius lower than the highest temperature recorded today. Although a frost is a possibility for tonight, the minimum will undoubtedly be several degrees higher than on the corresponding night last year. On that night the temperature fell to minus 5.9 Celsius, the lowest November reading for 21 years. On the last day of the month there was heavy snow, and the good folk of this area awoke on the 1st of December to an 8 centimetre covering of snow! Not so this year, presumably.

What about the frost?

This autumn, so far, has seen a couple of white grass frosts (in October) but no air frosts have occurred. How unusual is that? At this site records began in 1988 and since then there have only been 2 instances where the autumn months, September, October and November, have been completely free of air frosts. The years in question were 1994 and 1999. In 1994, November was exceptionally mild and currently stands as the mildest November in this area since before 1900. Also the temperature difference to the next mildest (1938) is, in statistical terms, quite substantial. However, at the moment, this November is milder than that of 1994, also by quite a significant margin. Today may help to change that, though, with the maximum temperature struggling to achieve double figures. In both 1994 and 1999 the frost-free period did not extend through the remainder of the year. In 1994 the first frost of the 'winter' occurred on December 15th with the 14th seeing the first frost in 1999.

The worst winter in living memory (depending on age!)

It has probably been the worst winter for reporting weather facts since records began, but what about some real statistics. Okay, that's boring, but with the media telling us that the 'Big Freeze' is over it may be time to put some sobering thoughts together. Comments at the local bus stop range from 'Don't remember a winter like it' to 'Winters were often like this when I was young'. Well, yes, both statements could be true, depending on age. The Met. Office defines 'winter' as the three months December, January and February. In this winter, none of the months have been record-breaking in this area. December was the coldest since 2001, January was the coldest since 1997, and this month, although the coldest since 1986 at the moment, will probably end up as the coldest since 1991 or perhaps 1996. So, certainly no extremes there. The 'winter' started early for the media with October snow around London, and further snow fell in November, although that month, as a whole, was milder than average. Of interest, is the fact that the three winter months (unless the rest of February becomes very mild indeed!) have all been colder than average and the mean temperature is comparably cold with only 3 winters during the last 30 years. There is no way (famous last words!!) that this winter will be as cold as that of 1978/79, but it will probably be the coldest since 1995/96, perhaps the coldest since 1990/91, and maybe the coldest since 1985/86. If colder weather returns at the end of the month, then it will be the coldest winter in this area for 30 years, and for many, many people that's outside of 'living memory'.

The heaviest snow in South London since.....

The 19 centimetres of snow that fell yesterday and overnight has got us trawling through the record books. 'The snowiest since February 1991' is a typical quote from the media, but in that month, the Morden area only had 16 centimetres of level snow. Back in January 1987, it was bitterly cold and there were some deep drifts, but again the level snow was only 16 centimetres. Snow stayed on the ground for a while in the winter of '81/82 but not particularly deep, and then it's back to the 'winter of discontent' - 1978/79. Certainly on hills, and particularly in north London, snow depths exceeded 20 centimetres, but not in Morden. Early March produced depths close to 15 centimetres, but December 1962 had heavy snow on Boxing Day http://www.london-weather.eu/article.102.html, followed by further significant falls later in the month. The resulting depth was 25 to 30 centimetres. That's where the record lies.... so far!