Monday, 23 May 2011

Dry, but getting wetter!

The 23rd of May, the sun is shining, but rain over the weekend has reduced the Spring deficit and it remains uncertain whether the 'record dry Spring will become a reality. A mere 15mm will now take the 3 month total past that achieved in Spring 1976 but there are only 9 rain days left! Let's have a look at the latest charts. At the moment the radar shows a band of rain over Wales and that's forecast to weaken considerably as it moves southeast. Probably 1mm at most before it clears. Tomorrow (24th). Only an outside chance of a shower. 25th suggests a weak front late in the day or overnight, again less than 1mm. So, 6 days to go and 13mm. 26th will probably be showery, typically 2-5mm, with a ridge of high pressure helping to produce a dry day on the 27th. The 28th could well be a wet day 5-10mm, possibly more! Back to showers and around 2mm on the 29th followed by more substantial rain on the 30th (5-10mm) and then showers again on the 31st (about 2mm). Best estimate would suggest the record will be missed by close on 3mm. Bad news for the thrill-seeking statisticians. Great news for the gardeners!

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